Mergers and acquisitions (M&As) are a critical component of corporate growth and exit strategies. According to research by Morgan Stanley, M&A transactions could rise by half this year, with sectors as varied as banking and real estate enjoying a boost.
While Q1 2024 has already seen a 36 percent increase in global deal value, driven by soaring corporate confidence and easing inflation, an increasing number of M&As are threatened by activist investors who can block, delay or test boards when it comes to these transactions.
As Diligent has found, 2023 saw a 20.8 percent jump in the number of contested deals, with activist arbitrage just one of several tactics disrupting deals from industries ranging from medtech to energy.
Yet the situation isn’t hopeless. By utilizing cutting-edge Institutional Ownership Intelligence (Oi) to understand exactly which investors are active, dovetailed with targeted shareholder engagement to get doubters onside, leaders can significantly increase success rates on even complex M&A transactions.
Institutional Ownership Intelligence
Oi is streamlined market surveillance that identifies and tracks the true institutional shareholders holding a direct financial interest hiding behind custodians in your stock. Oi can make or break an M&A transaction. While many companies claim they know who owns their stock, in an M&A transaction, a company can literally see its shareholder profile change overnight and continue to shift with news cycles and external market factors. The C-Suite and board’s understanding of who owns shares in their company—and how many shares they own—allows them to flag potential activist investors ahead of time and see where the stock is moving. This, in turn, provides the opportunity to address any potential issues and develop a strategy before an M&A vote, while also providing insight into the market reaction to any announcement.
Many companies are ill-equipped for today’s fast-paced trading environment, relying on outdated Form 13F filings or high-priced, mediocre results from legacy providers that report in hindsight. This is especially problematic in a market where institutions own about 78 percent of shares across the Russell 3000 companies.
Successful M&As face other barriers too, such as stock loaning. In this $10 billion sector, many shareholders have less voting power than their nominal stock holding implies. Executives may believe the vote is in “friendly-to-management” hands but, in fact, the stock has been lent to a short seller, reducing the shares available to vote with management. Knowing this in advance is crucial for tight M&A votes.
It hardly helps, says Adam Riches, a senior managing director at Alliance Advisors, that so-called “bumpitrage” is a rising tactic across M&A. Essentially, activist investors buy shares in a company targeted for takeover—and subsequently argue that the offer is too low, which delays some deals and derails others altogether.
Alliance Advisors’ Oi service leverages tens of thousands of annual solicitation campaigns to provide a deep database that maps custodian profiles to investors, including data on sector-wide short selling. Even before a transaction is announced, Oi can help companies predict how key shareholders might react based both on their activist history and current shareholder profile.
Once an M&A plan is publicly announced, Oi remains even more critical as it creates a continuous log of shareholder analysis, helping companies gauge market reaction to the news and prepare to win future votes.
While Oi is a critical part of the process, its true value lies in its integration with other shareholder management tools. For instance, if Oi alerts a company of an investor with a history of blocking M&A or causing disruption, the company can immediately engage through meetings and proactive shareholder communications to address concerns in advance. If Oi uncovers stock loaning or bumpitrage, leaders can quickly recalibrate the number of votes they will need.
Oi also provides more comprehensive insight, such as whether shareholders are genuinely at risk of voting against a resolution or simply unhappy at the moment. Beyond offering executives and board members peace of mind and preventing costly M&A failures like those experienced by Brookfield and Abrdn, robust Oi enables boards to keep shareholders satisfied once an initial merger is approved. Given that an M&A is only the first step to a long and successful partnership, this approach is essential.
