Ask a CEO or board member how AI will change their workforce in the next year, and the answer—at least on the surface—would appear to be not much. Roles are evolving, skills are shifting but for most companies, the AI revolution won’t alter the existing workforce beyond what one might expect in an uncertain economy.
Three or five years from now, that won’t be the case.
A new survey by Chief Executive Group and the Long-Term Stock Exchange (LTSE), fielded in early April among 109 CEOs and board members at U.S. companies, finds that within three years, 43 percent of those surveyed anticipate a net reduction in workforce size due to the use of AI. Five years out, that figure rises to 53 percent. Just 16 percent anticipate a net reduction in headcount over the next 12 months, though 64 percent expect AI to shift roles and skills during that period.
The outlook comes as spending begins to ramp. While some 60 percent of survey respondents describe incremental or moderate shifts toward AI-related investments so far, and just 3 percent say AI is a top capital allocation priority, that spending is largely concentrated in one area: software, tools and platforms (60 percent).
Reskilling and upskilling the existing workforce follows far behind, at 27 percent, indicating workforce development remains a secondary focus so far. Investment in R&D and new AI or technical talent each stands at 19 percent.
Differences emerge across company types. Respondents at privately held companies are more than twice as likely to report active investment in AI talent (33 percent vs. 15 percent) then their public company peers, and three times more likely to describe AI as core to their competitive strategy (28 percent vs. 9 percent), pointing to a divergence in how organizations are prioritizing AI in both talent and strategy.
Maliz Beams, chief executive officer of the Long Term Stock Exchange and chair of the Long Term Stock Exchange Group Board, sees a familiar pattern in this. “More established organizations tend to underinvest in workforce adaptation relative to technology, leaving them exposed as AI adoption accelerates,” she says, noting companies that pair strong governance with long-term strategy are likely to be better positioned to drive sustainable value creation through periods of rapid change.
Confidence in AI Governance Is Limited
Despite increased AI activity, few respondents express high confidence in their governance and oversight frameworks for the technology.
About one in five describe themselves as “very” or “extremely” confident in their organization’s ability to manage AI-related risks and opportunities. Nearly half report being “moderately” confident, while 33 percent say they are only “slightly confident” or “not confident.”
Board engagement with AI strategy and risk remains uneven. Seventeen percent of respondents say their boards review AI-related issues on an ongoing basis, while 52 percent do so quarterly. Thirteen percent report no formal review.
The frequency of review differs by company size, as you might expect. Among companies under $100 million in revenue, one-third report no formal review of AI strategy and risks, compared to 6 percent of companies with $1 billion or more in revenue.
Respondents also point to different barriers to AI readiness. Directors more often cite strategic clarity among their top concerns, while CEOs more frequently point to execution-related challenges such as cultural resistance or decision-making speed.
The Long-Term View
Planning horizon is one of the clearest dividing lines in the data. Among respondents at companies with long-term strategies extending six years or more, 89 percent describe AI investment as additive to existing priorities, rather than at the expense of other long-term strategic priorities, compared to 62 percent among those with planning horizons of five years or less.
The same group is also less likely to anticipate workforce reduction over five years (33 percent versus 55 percent).
Companies with longer planning horizons also report several common characteristics:
- Integrated AI into enterprise strategy
- Invest in both technology and workforce development
- Maintain regular board-level review of AI risks and opportunities
“Companies that approach AI with a longer-term lens tend to integrate it into strategy, governance and workforce planning simultaneously,” says Michelle Greene, board member, president emeritus and former interim CEO, Long-Term Stock Exchange. “That alignment is what will allow them to capture value while managing risk more effectively over time.”
