The past few years have been marked by significant headwinds for business in the U.S., but if you listen to the hundreds of public company board members who participated in our post-election poll last week, that may be about to change.
Corporate Board Member’s November Director Confidence Index, conducted in partnership with Diligent Institute, finds the majority of corporate directors optimistic about the business landscape in 2025: 54 percent expect conditions to improve over the next 12 months, vs. 42 percent in Q3 when we last polled them on this matter.
Directors project the business environment a year from now to hit 7 on a 10-point scale where 1 is Poor and 10 is Excellent—up 10 percent since Q3 and the highest forecast on record since July 2021, when the Covid-19 vaccine rollout gave hope for a return to normal.
When asked to explain their outlook, 95 percent said it had been influenced, to varying degrees, good or bad, by the outcome of the 2024 presidential election.
More specifically, those anticipating that the Trump administration will have a positive effect on business cited the easing of companies’ regulatory requirements and looming tax cuts as the primary reasons for expecting improving conditions, while those forecasting a negative effect on business cited trade tariffs and overall instability as the most common elements driving their forecast.
Looking at the full surveyed population, regardless of their take on the election results, “corporate taxes” ranked first on the list of policies that have the potential to have the biggest impact on business, followed by “industry regulation,” “trade policies” and “climate regulation.”
Many directors, though, found themselves in the middle, voicing both positives and negatives for the year ahead.
“Soft landing seems to have been accomplished. Post election, I anticipate less regulatory scrutiny will improve the economy, but this will be offset by the impact of tariffs and inflation,” said a director on the board of a REIT, echoing several others who mentioned concerns over tariffs.
“I am expecting some puts and takes: better capital environment from lower interest rates, but some higher prices from tariffs in specific imports,” added Autumn Bayles, who serves on the board of QNB Bank.
As Axcelis’ non-executive chair Jorge Titinger put it: “Keep a foot on the accelerator and the other one on the brakes.”
On a macro level, more than three-quarters agree that the Trump administration’s first order of business upon taking office should be to focus on growing the economy—ahead of immigration (59 percent), foreign relations (44 percent) and fiscal policies (32 percent).
CEOs, polled by sister publication Chief Executive during that same period, agree with board members on the top three priorities for the incoming administration, but CFOs, when asked the same question by Chief Executive Group community StrategicCFO360, placed taxes in third place on that list—agreeing with directors and CEOs at least on the first two.
The national debt level was also added as a concern by some directors—and we observed a similar write-in response from CEOs and CFOs.
While the data finds a higher proportion of board members who anticipate business conditions to improve, 27 percent disagree and say they instead foresee a deterioration of business conditions in the U.S. That proportion has been relatively steady all year, moving one point up or down every quarter, for an average of 26 percent in 2024.
Those directors say they anticipate significant challenges ahead, such as increased inflation, a tighter labor market and heightening global tensions, which they believe will neutralize the potential positives of tax cuts and deregulation. A word analysis finds “tariffs” among the most cited this month, with 20 percent of directors polled using it in their justification for their outlook.
Overall, though, sentiment has turned positive, and 79 percent expect the effect of the incoming administration to bolster equity markets, though half of them say the gains will be limited.
“The stock market has spiked following the election. It will likely stabilize over the next 12 months,” said MVB Financial’s Gary LeDonne, noting, “Hopefully, most of the initial gains will stick.”
THE YEAR AHEAD
The optimism recorded by our leading indicator in November also translates to individual company forecasts, with 82 percent of those polled saying they expect revenue to rise in 2025 (up 8 percentage points from 74 percent in Q3) and 80 percent expecting profits to increase (up 10 percentage points from 70 percent in Q3).
Finally, 45 percent said they would increase capex in the months to come, up from 42 percent in Q3—a 9 percent jump and the highest proportion since the spring of 2022.
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Corporate Board Member, a division of Chief Executive Group, has been the market leader in board education for 20 years. The quarterly publication provides public company board members, CEOs, general counsel and corporate secretaries decision-making tools to address the wide range of corporate governance, risk oversight and shareholder engagement issues facing their boards. Corporate Board Member further extends its thought leadership through online resources, webinars, timely research, conferences and peer-driven roundtables. The company maintains the most comprehensive database of directors and officers of publicly traded companies listed with NYSE, NYSE Amex and Nasdaq.
About the Diligent Institute
Diligent Institute informs, educates, and connects leaders to champion modern governance. We provide original, cutting-edge research on the most pressing issues in corporate governance; certifications and educational programs that equip leaders with the knowledge and credentials needed to guide their organizations through existential challenges; networks that convene directors and corporate executives to share best practices and insights; and awards and recognition programs that celebrate the accomplishments of those who champion modern governance. Learn more at diligentinstitute.com.
